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Open Access

Real-world analysis of two ischaemic stroke and TIA systolic blood pressure goals on 12-month mortality and recurrent vascular events

Jason J Sico, Xin Hu, Laura J Myers, Deborah Levine, Dawn M Bravata, Greg W Arling
DOI: 10.1136/svn-2023-002759 Published 5 November 2024
Jason J Sico
1 Internal Medicine and Neurology, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut, USA
2 Department of Neurology, Veterans Affairs Connecticut Healthcare System, West Haven, Connecticut, USA
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Xin Hu
3 Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut, USA
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Laura J Myers
4 VA Health Services Research and Development (HSR&D) Center for Healthcare Informatics and Communication and the HSR&D Stroke Quality Enhancement Research Initiative (QUERI), Indianapolis, Indiana, USA
5 Richard L. Roudebush VA Medical Center, Indianapolis, Indiana, USA
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Deborah Levine
6 Departments of Medicine and Neurology, University of Michigan School of Medicine, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
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Dawn M Bravata
7 Health Services Research and Development (HSR&D) Center for Healthcare Informatics and Communication and the HSR&D Stroke Quality Enhancement Research Initiative (QUERI); Richard L. Roudebush VA Medical Center, Indianapolis, Indiana, USA
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Greg W Arling
8 Department of Veterans Affairs (VA), Health Services Research and Development (HSR&D) Precision Monitoring to Transform Care (PRISM) Quality Enhancement Research Initiative (QUERI), Indianapolis, Indiana, USA
9 Department of Nursing, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana, USA
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  • Figure 1
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    Figure 1

    Flow chart of eligible veterans with ischaemic stroke and TIA to examine the relationship between systolic blood pressure control at 90 days and mortality and recurrent vascular events at 12 months. TIA, transient ischaemic attack.

  • Figure 2
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    Figure 2

    Number of systolic blood pressure readings by postischaemic stroke/TIA discharge day. SBP, systolic blood pressure; TIA, transient ischaemic attack.

  • Figure 3
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    Figure 3

    Predicted probability (with CIs) for mortality within 12 months by systolic blood pressure intervals (N=9065). Predicted probability of all-cause mortality within 12 months by systolic blood pressure obtained at 90 days postischaemic stroke/transient ischaemic attack.

Tables

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  • Table 1

    Baseline characteristics of ischaemic stroke/TIA patients cohort surviving 90 days postcerebrovascular event cohort (N=12 337)

    CharacteristicMean (SD) or %
    Sociodemographic
     Age69.05 (10.8)
     Sex, male95.3
    Race
     White70.2
     Black24.5
     Asian0.7
     Other0.6
     Unknown4.0
     Hispanic7.5
    Systolic blood pressure groupings (mm Hg)
     ≤1053.6
     106 to ≤11510.3
     116 to ≤13034.9
     131 to ≤14027.4
     > 14023.7
    Index Cerebrovascular Event-Final Diagnosis
     Ischaemic stroke64.0
     TIA36.0
    FY of presentation
     FY201637.3
     FY201736.5
     FY201826.2
    Healthcare utilisation
     No of admissions in 1 year prior to presentation0.31 (0.78)
     No of ED presentations in 1 year prior to presentation1.25 (2.12)
     Length of hospitalisation stay (days)3.90 (7.12)
     ED presentation of index event91.0
     Hospital admission of index event83.5
    Medical history*
     Ischaemic stroke56.7
     TIA26.0
     Hemiplegia34.3
     Hypertension79.0
     Hyperlipidaemia64.1
     Diabetes43.0
     Atrial fibrillation13.9
     Other arrhythmia11.0
     CHF11.9
     MI6.2
     CEA/carotid stent0.9
     PAD12.6
     OSA14.9
     Chronic kidney disease15.6
     Current smoker33.3
     Alcohol dependence9.7
     Dementia7.3
     Depression22.5
    Additional clinical indicators
     CCI2.20 (2.22)
     Modified APACHE III score9.73 (6.36)
    Concomitant illness within 1 day of cerebrovascular event presentation
     MI2.6
     CHF1.6
    • *Medical history variables identified by International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Edition Code.

    • APACHE, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation; CCI, Charlson Comorbidity Index; CEA, carotid endarterectomy; CHF, congestive heart failure; ED, emergency department; FY, fiscal year; MI, myocardial infarction; OSA, obstructive sleep apnoea; PAD, peripheral arterial disease; SBP, systolic blood pressure; TIA, transient ischaemic attack; VA, Veterans Affairs.

  • Table 2

    Descriptive table of 12-month patient outcomes stratified by SBP levels (N=12 337)

    SBP≤105(1)105<SBP≤115(2)115<SBP≤130(3)130<SBP≤140(4)SBP>140(5)TotalP value*
    Total (%)3.610.334.927.423.7100 
    SBP measurements       
     Mean (SD)2.39 (1.92)2.90 (2.01)3.19 (2.23)3.22 (2.28)3.15 (2.00)3.14 (2.16)<0.001†
    Outcomes
     Recurrent ischaemic stroke/TIA22 (7.7)66 (6.3)236 (5.6)214 (6.2)212 (6.4)750 (6.1)0.438
     Cardiovascular events‡5 (1.7)15 (1.4)83 (2.0)72 (2.1)58 (1.8)233 (6.1)0.671
     Total vascular events§24 (8.4)80 (7.7)304 (7.2)275 (8.0)260 (7.8)943 (7.7)0.732
     All-cause mortality28 (9.8)38 (3.7)143 (3.4)98 (2.8)123 (3.7)430 (3.5)<0.001
    • *P values from χ2 or one-way ANOVA.

    • †Significant contrasts from one-way ANOVA (Scheffe test, p<0.05): (1) less than (2–5); (2) greater than (1); (3) greater than (1, 2); (4) greater than (1, 2) and (5) greater than (1, 2).

    • ‡Cardiovascular Events: myocardial infarction/acute coronary syndrome, ventricular arrhythmias.

    • §Total Vascular Events: recurrent stroke/TIA, myocardial infarction/acute coronary syndrome, ventricular arrhythmias.

    • ANOVA, analysis of variance; SBP, systolic blood pressure; TIA, transient ischaemic attack.

  • Table 3

    Distinct systolic blood pressure readings postdischarge per ischaemic stroke/TIA patient (N=12 337)

    Distinct blood pressure measurementsn(%)
    1501640.75
    2402032.66
    3202816.47
    47856.38
    53092.51
    6950.77
    7340.28
    8170.14
    940.03
    1000.00
    1120.02
    • TIA, transient ischaemic attack.

  • Table 4

    Multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression for survival (N=12 337)*

    VariableSurvival since 90 days after discharge up to 12 months
    HR (95% CI)PH assumption test
    Systolic blood pressure groupings (mm Hg)
     ≤1052.07 (1.43 to 3.00)0.58
     106 to ≤1151.14 (0.83 to 1.57)0.11
     116 to ≤1300.91 (0.71 to 1.17)<0.001
     131 to ≤1400.82 (0.63 to 1.07)0.11
     >140Ref
    Age1.06 (1.05 to 1.07)0.16
    Yes0.77 (0.54 to 1.10)<0.001
    Healthcare utilisation
    No of admissions in 1 year prior to presentation1.20 (1.07 to 1.35)0.63
    Length of stay
    No of ED presentations in 1 year prior to presentation0.94 (0.89 to 1.00)0.95
    Medical history†
    Hyperlipidaemia
     NoRef
     Yes0.68 (0.56 to 0.83)0.32
    Atrial fibrillation
     NoRef
     Yes1.27 (1.02 to 1.59)0.79
    OSA
     NoRef
     Yes0.66 (0.48 to 0.91)0.16
    Dementia
     NoRef
     Yes1.80 (1.41 to 2.29)0.21
    CCI1.11 (1.06 to 1.16)0.74
    APACHE1.02 (1.00 to 1.03)0.37
    • *PH assumption test=proportional hazard assumption test. A p≥0.05 indicates that the HR is constant over time. A p<0.05 indicates violation of the proportional hazard assumption for the model.

    • †Medical history variables identified by International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Edition Code.

    • APACHE, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation; CCI, Charlson Comorbidity Index; ED, emergency department; OSA, obstructive sleep apnoea; PH, proportional hazard; TIA, transient ischaemic attack.

  • Table 5

    Multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression for cerebrovascular recurrence, cardiovascular recurrence and both combined, with death as a competing risk (N=12 337)

    Model 1—recurrent cardiovascular event*Model 2—recurrent cerebrovascular event†Model 3—recurrence of either vascular event‡
    CharacteristicHR (95% CI)
    Systolic blood pressure groupings (mm Hg)
     ≤1050.90 (0.63 to 1.30)0.87 (0.51 to 1.47)0.92 (0.55 to 1.53)
     106 to ≤1150.95 (0.74 to 1.21)0.99 (0.71 to 1.38)0.89 (0.62 to 1.28)
     116 to ≤1300.92 (0.77 to 1.10)0.77 (0.60 to 0.99)1.09 (0.84 to 1.41)
     131 to ≤1401.02 (0.84 to 1.23)1.10 (0.86 to 1.40)0.89 (0.66 to 1.19)
     >140RefRefRef
    Age1.01 (1.00 to 1.02)1.01 (1.00 to 1.02)1.01 (1.00 to 1.02)
    No of ED presentations in 1 year prior to presentation1.09 (1.07 to 1.11)1.07 (1.05 to 1.10)1.11 (1.08 to 1.13)
    ED presentation of index event
     NoRef
     Yes1.33 (1.02 to 1.73)——
    Medical history§
    Ischaemic stroke
     No—Ref—
     Yes—1.26 (1.04 to 1.52)
    Hemiplegia
     No——Ref
     Yes——0.72 (0.58 to 0.90)
    Diabetes
     NoRefRef—
     Yes1.28 (1.10 to 1.50)1.47 (1.23 to 1.77)—
    Atrial fibrillation
     NoRefRef
     Yes1.34 (1.12 to 1.59)—1.65 (1.29 to 2.12)
    CHF
     NoRefRef
     Yes1.76 (1.46 to 2.12)2.77 (2.13 to 3.61)
    MI
     NoRef—Ref
     Yes1.45 (1.17 to 1.80)—1.65 (1.23 to 2.21)
    Current smoker
     No—Ref—
     Yes—1.32 (1.09 to 1.61)—
    CCI1.05 (1.02 to 1.09)—1.10 (1.05 to 1.14)
    APACHE1.01 (1.00 to 1.02)—1.02 (1.01 to 1.04)
    • *Model 1—Recurrent cerebrovascular events only with death as a competing risk.

    • †Model 2—Recurrent cardiovascular events only with death as a competing risk.

    • ‡Model 3—Combined recurrent cerebrovascular events and recurrent cardiovascular events with death as a competing risk.

    • §Medical history variables identified by International Classification of Diseases to Ninth Edition Code.

    • APACHE, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation; CCI, Charlson Comorbidity Index; CHF, congestive heart failure; ED, Emergency Department; MI, myocardial infarction.

Supplementary Materials

  • Figures
  • Tables
  • Additional Files
  • Supplementary data

    [svn-2023-002759supp001.pdf]

  • Supplementary data

    [svn-2023-002759supp002.pdf]

  • Supplementary data

    [svn-2023-002759supp003.pdf]

  • Supplementary data

    [svn-2023-002759supp004.pdf]

  • Supplementary data

    [svn-2023-002759supp005.pdf]

Additional Files

  • Figures
  • Tables
  • Supplementary Materials
  • Supplementary Data

    This web only file has been produced by the BMJ Publishing Group from an electronic file supplied by the author(s) and has not been edited for content.

    • Data supplement 1
    • Data supplement 2
    • Data supplement 3
    • Data supplement 4
    • Data supplement 5
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Real-world analysis of two ischaemic stroke and TIA systolic blood pressure goals on 12-month mortality and recurrent vascular events
Jason J Sico, Xin Hu, Laura J Myers, Deborah Levine, Dawn M Bravata, Greg W Arling
Stroke and Vascular Neurology Oct 2024, 9 (5) 519-529; DOI: 10.1136/svn-2023-002759

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Real-world analysis of two ischaemic stroke and TIA systolic blood pressure goals on 12-month mortality and recurrent vascular events
Jason J Sico, Xin Hu, Laura J Myers, Deborah Levine, Dawn M Bravata, Greg W Arling
Stroke and Vascular Neurology Oct 2024, 9 (5) 519-529; DOI: 10.1136/svn-2023-002759
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Real-world analysis of two ischaemic stroke and TIA systolic blood pressure goals on 12-month mortality and recurrent vascular events
Jason J Sico, Xin Hu, Laura J Myers, Deborah Levine, Dawn M Bravata, Greg W Arling
Stroke and Vascular Neurology Oct 2024, 9 (5) 519-529; DOI: 10.1136/svn-2023-002759
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