Multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression for cerebrovascular recurrence, cardiovascular recurrence and both combined, with death as a competing risk (N=12 337)
| Model 1—recurrent cardiovascular event* | Model 2—recurrent cerebrovascular event† | Model 3—recurrence of either vascular event‡ | |
| Characteristic | HR (95% CI) | ||
| Systolic blood pressure groupings (mm Hg) | |||
| ≤105 | 0.90 (0.63 to 1.30) | 0.87 (0.51 to 1.47) | 0.92 (0.55 to 1.53) |
| 106 to ≤115 | 0.95 (0.74 to 1.21) | 0.99 (0.71 to 1.38) | 0.89 (0.62 to 1.28) |
| 116 to ≤130 | 0.92 (0.77 to 1.10) | 0.77 (0.60 to 0.99) | 1.09 (0.84 to 1.41) |
| 131 to ≤140 | 1.02 (0.84 to 1.23) | 1.10 (0.86 to 1.40) | 0.89 (0.66 to 1.19) |
| >140 | Ref | Ref | Ref |
| Age | 1.01 (1.00 to 1.02) | 1.01 (1.00 to 1.02) | 1.01 (1.00 to 1.02) |
| No of ED presentations in 1 year prior to presentation | 1.09 (1.07 to 1.11) | 1.07 (1.05 to 1.10) | 1.11 (1.08 to 1.13) |
| ED presentation of index event | |||
| No | Ref | ||
| Yes | 1.33 (1.02 to 1.73) | — | — |
| Medical history§ | |||
| Ischaemic stroke | |||
| No | — | Ref | — |
| Yes | — | 1.26 (1.04 to 1.52) | |
| Hemiplegia | |||
| No | — | — | Ref |
| Yes | — | — | 0.72 (0.58 to 0.90) |
| Diabetes | |||
| No | Ref | Ref | — |
| Yes | 1.28 (1.10 to 1.50) | 1.47 (1.23 to 1.77) | — |
| Atrial fibrillation | |||
| No | Ref | Ref | |
| Yes | 1.34 (1.12 to 1.59) | — | 1.65 (1.29 to 2.12) |
| CHF | |||
| No | Ref | Ref | |
| Yes | 1.76 (1.46 to 2.12) | 2.77 (2.13 to 3.61) | |
| MI | |||
| No | Ref | — | Ref |
| Yes | 1.45 (1.17 to 1.80) | — | 1.65 (1.23 to 2.21) |
| Current smoker | |||
| No | — | Ref | — |
| Yes | — | 1.32 (1.09 to 1.61) | — |
| CCI | 1.05 (1.02 to 1.09) | — | 1.10 (1.05 to 1.14) |
| APACHE | 1.01 (1.00 to 1.02) | — | 1.02 (1.01 to 1.04) |
*Model 1—Recurrent cerebrovascular events only with death as a competing risk.
†Model 2—Recurrent cardiovascular events only with death as a competing risk.
‡Model 3—Combined recurrent cerebrovascular events and recurrent cardiovascular events with death as a competing risk.
§Medical history variables identified by International Classification of Diseases to Ninth Edition Code.
APACHE, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation; CCI, Charlson Comorbidity Index; CHF, congestive heart failure; ED, Emergency Department; MI, myocardial infarction.